Halo 3 Won't Save the Day

I'm sure Halo 3 is going to be huge.  Blockbuster huge.  The best-selling game ever.  But it won't be enough.

Here are US sales numbers for last month:

Wii: 425,000
Nintendo DS: 405,000
PlayStation 2: 222,000
PlayStation Portable: 214,000
Xbox 360: 170,000
PlayStation 3: 159,000
Game Boy Advance: 87,000

I should stress that this is only in the United States, not worldwide.  This is an important detail, because the XBox 360 does much better in America and the UK than anywhere else.  In Japan, a massive video game market, they're barely on the radar.  So.  What do these numbers tell us?

The XBox 360 is selling at 40% the rate of the Nintendo Wii.  Meaning even if Nintendo stops releasing games (they've been in a bit of a drought lately) and Halo doubles XBox 360 sales, the Wii is still selling more.

And that's in America.  The Wii has already conquered Japan.  And is (reportedly) in first place in worldwide sales.  If the XBox can't start outselling the Wii handedly, they will never reclaim first place.

Microsoft is relying on a target demographic that I'm not sure exists:  Consumers Who Haven't Yet Bought an XBox  360 But Will To Play Halo 3.  I'm sure they exist, but their numbers can't touch the numbers of Consumers Who Bought an XBox 360 Already and Can't Wait for Halo.

The numbers just aren't there for Microsoft.  Even if Halo 3 is the best game ever, the bump won't be as big as some are hoping.